Weekly Range Expansion Model – ICT Macro Trading Analysis

In ICT trading, trading models are based on ICT price action and time framework. Combining the two frameworks enhances the accuracy of ICT Trading models. ICT Weekly Range Expansion Model is a short-term trading model. This models particularly based on capitalizing on an expanding bullish and bearish weekly ranges.

This article explores its understanding and trading with weekly range expansion model in bullish and bearish scenario.

Understanding the Weekly Range Expansion Model

In ICT trading, Weekly Range Expansion Model focuses on capturing short-term price movements within a trading week. The model is built around three key stages. The core of this model is determining the weekly bias. Trade setups can be depended upon bullish and bearish scenario.

First stage is determining the weekly bias. This includes analyzing weekly chart to identify whether the market is going to be bullish or bearish. Normally, weekly bias can be analyzed by looking at three factors including liquidity pools, fair value gaps, and market structure shifts.

After establishing weekly bias, traders prepare for the range expansion that occurs during the week. Monday often sets the high or low of the week. Tuesday to Thursday is the period of maximum expansion. Traders anticipate that market will expand from a key liquidity zone toward a PD Array target.

The key stage is the trade execution. High-probability trades require liquidity sweep and confirmation approaches. If the weekly bias is bullish, we can find our trade entries and buy on Tuesday at 04:00 AM (New York Time). If the weekly bias is bearish, we can find our trade entries and sell on Tuesday at 04:00 AM.

Stage 1: Weekly Direction

In ICT trading, for every trade setup, it is indispensable for trader to analyze weekly accurately for short-term trading. The same applies to day trading. One must have a firm grasp on daily bias analysis in order to trade intraday. The weekly direction is important because it dictates whether the market will expand upward or downward.

Normally, three concepts are employed to find the weekly bias accurately. The concept of liquidity allows us to spot important liquidity points on weekly chart. This includes buy side and sell side liquidity and the weekly candle low or high. However, the overall market structure on weekly timeframe is important.

Another important concept within liquidity is internal and external range liquidity. Along with external range liquidity, internal range liquidity is equally important. Price often fills liquidity voids, fair value gaps. Lastly, on daily chart, if price creates market structure shift, this confirms the weekly bias.

Stage 2: Range Expansion

After confirming the bias, the next step is to anticipate the range expansion that will occur within the week. The market follows a predictable pattern where it tends to establish a high or low early in the week before expanding in the smart money intended direction.

The following are the concepts and entry techniques that is used in this stage of weekly range expansion model:

• Monday often sets the low (in a bullish week) or high (in a bearish week). It is indispensable for traders to observe liquidity sweep before executing the trade.
• The best trade entries typically occur on Tuesday 4:00 AM (New York Local Time). This entry point aligns with the beginning of the weekly expansion.
• Lastly, it is advised to hold trades until Thursday. The expansion continues from Tuesday to Thursday. This is the time when the price often makes the most significant move.

The PD Array Matrix plays a critical role in executing trades within the ICT weekly range expansion model. Concepts within PD array are highly dependent on premium and discount trading. With a bullish trading bias, discount zone is the area attractive for buying. So, the PD arrays in discount zone are ideal for buying in a bullish expansion.

Conversely, with a bearish trading bias, premium zone is the area attractive for selling. So, the PD arrays in the premium zone are ideal for selling entry in a bearish expansion.

Stage 3: Trade Execution

Having an in-depth understanding of the above two stages, it become easy for traders to execute trades accurately. Remember trade execution is based on market scenarios.

Trading with a Bullish Weekly Range Expansion

As we know trading with this model is based on the above two stages. The following are the steps that we follow in trading with this model using the first two stages:

• In first step, we first confirm a bullish week. It is crucial to confirm bullish weekly bias. Market must sweep the sell side liquidity or fill the imbalances. Price must be in a discount zone of the dealing range. Lastly, there is a MSS to the upside on the daily chart.
• In second step, wait for the price to form low on Monday. Monday often sets the weekly low in a bullish scenario. It is advised to place entry on Tuesday at 4:00 AM (New York local time). The ideal entry price is either at or below the Tuesday opening price.
• Lastly, we have to place stop loss logically. It is advised to place stoploss 50 pips below the entry price. We mostly target buy-side liquidity or premium PD array as take-profit levels.

It is advised to hold trades until Thursday’s New York Opening.

Trading with a Bearish Weekly Range Expansion

As we know trading with this model is based on the first two stages. The following are the steps that we follow in trading with this model using the first two stages:

• In first step, we first confirm a bearish week. It is crucial to confirm bearish weekly bias. Market must sweep the buy side liquidity or fill the imbalances. Price must be in a premium zone of the dealing range. Lastly, there is a MSS to the downside on the daily chart.
• In second step, wait for the price to form high on Monday. Monday often sets the weekly high in a bullish scenario. It is advised to place entry on Tuesday at 4:00 AM (New York local time). The ideal entry price is either at or above the Tuesday opening price.
• Lastly, we have to place stop loss logically. It is advised to place stop-loss 50 pips above the entry price. We mostly target sell-side liquidity or discount PD array as take-profit levels.

It is advised to hold trades until Thursday’s New York Opening.

Final Note

The Weekly Range Expansion Model provides structured approach to identifying and capitalizing on short-term market expansions. By analyzing liquidity, Fair Value Gaps, and Market Structure Shifts, traders can align their trades with institutional order flow. Consistency, patience, and disciplined risk management are key to success in this model.

Trading in financial markets carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past price action is used to understand market behavior, it cannot guarantee future results. Apply proper risk management strategies and never trade with the capital that you cannot afford to lose. Consult financial advisor before trading or investing.

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